Box of Data » gas

Gas Prices and the 2008 Presidential Election

frets — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:57:56 +0000

Ever since my last post, I’ve watched the gas price at local stations keep coming down! What a welcome relief. It seems like the only thing coming down faster is the stock market (ba dum bum). But seriously folks, I wanted to see how this year stacks up against prior years, so here it is:

U.S. Gas Prices Leading up to the 2008 Election

Now THAT’s a clear downward trend prior to the elections! There are some plausible explanations for this dramatic (possibly record-setting) drop in gas prices (other than manipulation by the powers that be). And without corroborating evidence from prior years, I’m inclined to believe them. Besides, President Bush already demonstrated his office’s inability to influence crude prices & supply.

Are Gas Prices Manipulated Before Presidential Elections?

frets — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 21:30:48 +0000

Are gas prices manipulated to go down prior to a Presidential election? My research led me to look at the national level because the data for states is difficult to ascertain, and probably irrelevant. According to the EIA, in particular their Oil Market Basics publication, the largest variance in gas prices would occur at the regional level, largely due to supply issues. Looking at the breakdown of what makes up the price of gas, we get the following:

Distribution and marketing are mostly the profit the local station makes. Taxes, then, are the only portion of cost over which a state has control. Taxes are relatively steady and typically don’t change month-to-month. So what made sense was to look at the national level, to see if there were trends there (select the image to see it bigger):

Gas Prices and Presidential Elections, 1992 - 2007

No smoking gun here. If anything, there seems to be a trend in recent non-Presidential election years for gas to drop prior to November (2001, 2003, 2005, and 2006). But in contrast, gas prices in the Presidential election years have remained relatively flat or, in the case of 2004, have increased prior to Election Day. If there were some manipulation going on, I would have expected to see a stark contrast in the trends of election and non-election years.

I have to admit, I wasn’t sure how this one would turn out; but it appears that this myth is busted.

Source: Energy Information Administration

Gas Price Fluctuations

frets — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 23:52:00 +0000

Jamie and Rich v’s comments on another post got me looking at gas price trends before Presidential elections. I’ve heard comments that gas prices go down prior to an election, and even suspected there may be some manipulation at work.

But as I was looking into data for THAT story, I found it fascinating to analyze the difference between the lowest and highest gas price in a given year (fluctuations). Take a look, and remember, the data in this chart represents just the difference in gas prices each year:

Truly fascinating. In 1993, the difference between the lowest & highest price was less than 11¢! In 2005 we had a difference of $1.29! It is interesting to note is that the 2001 spike was not due to the events of 9/11 affecting the market; the late Spring seasonal price was the culprit that year. Also of note is the fact that the fluctuations really began to skyrocket after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.

More on my research into gas prices and Presidential elections to come.